Event: The Military and Nigerian Politics

Date of Recording: 19/10/18 Description: Why and how do military governments surrender power to elected civilian governments? The nineteen years since Nigeria emerged from military rule and transitioned to democracy in May 1999 is the longest era of civilian rule in its history. After the military governed Nigeria for 29 of the previous 33 years, 1999 ended a long-standing pattern of failed attempts by military governments to cede power to civilians. However, the transition to civilian rule was not unconditional. Military governments often extract a “price” or concessions in exchange for departing from government. They may acquire economic, political, and other interests that they are reluctant to relinquish when military rule ends. The military ostensibly withdrew from government but maintained influence over its successors by confining them within militarily imposed boundaries. Former military rulers have governed Nigeria for 11 of the 19 years since 1999 (including the current president). Many prior studies in this area focused on external macro factors that cause military withdrawal from governance (such as pressure from external actors like the EU, USA, and UN, and the ‘snowballing’ effects of democratisation in other countries). A distinguishing feature of Nigeria’s transition from military to civilian rule was that the military itself initiated the transition and prepared the way for its own replacement. Why did it do so? Prolonged military rule corroded military professionalism and created intra-military cleavages, injected ethno-regional and political controversies into the military, increased the risk of military coups, and caused premature attrition from the officer corps. Thus pressure for an end to military rule ironically emerged from within the military. Extrication from governance was a decision of military self-interest to give the military space to restore professional norms, while simultaneously preserving influence over its successors, and insulating the military from transformational reforms. Bio: John Ubani Jr is a PhD student in the War Studies department. He is a "lawyer by day and a PhD student at night"! He is researching Nigeria’s 1999 transition from military rule to democracy, and the factors that influence military governments to surrender power to elected civilian governments. John is a corporate lawyer. He has an LLB law degree from University College London, a postgraduate degree in law from the College of Law, London, and a Masters degree in African Studies (with distinction) from SOAS.