EA - Introducing The Long Game Project: Tabletop Exercises for a Resilient Tomorrow by Dr Dan Epstein

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Introducing The Long Game Project: Tabletop Exercises for a Resilient Tomorrow, published by Dr Dan Epstein on May 17, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.“No pilot would dare to fly a commercial airliner without significant training in a flight simulator . yet decision-makers are expected to make critical decisions relying on ‘theory’, ‘experience’, ‘intuition’, ‘gut feeling’, or less” - de Suarez et al 2012.tl;drThe Long Game Project is an organisation focused on helping institutions improve decision-making, enhance team collaboration, and build resilience. We aim to do this by a) Producing tools and resources to improve access to effective tabletop exercising; b) Providing advice, thought leadership and full-suite consultation to organisations interested in tabletop exercises; c) Encouraging a culture of running organisational games and building a community around tabletop games. Follow us on twitter and LinkedIn, play with our beta scenario-generator tool, provide feedback for some cash prizes and spread the word!Set the sceneImagine a world where organisations are prepared for the unexpected, where decision-makers can more confidently navigate crises and create positive outcomes even in the face of chaos because they have regular, simulated experience. Dynamic decision-making under uncertain conditions is a skill that can and should, be practised.Experience matters.Play it now,before you live it later.Roll for Initiative: Introducing The Long Game ProjectOur mission is to help organisations improve decision-making (IIDM), enhance team collaboration, and build resilience using tabletop exercises that are rules-light but experience heavy.Why we existThe world is becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable, with organisations facing various challenges. Institutional decision-making in practice is often ill-equipped to handle such complexity, leading to sub-optimal decision quality and severe failure modes. 80,000 hours lists IIDM as one of the best ways to improve existing levers, interventions and practical suggestions for our long-term future and lists this as a neglected issue. While IIDM is a complex cause area, requiring some disentangling, there are existing levers, interventions and practical suggestions that are under-utilised in practice. The Long Game Project exists to bridge this gap by applying several levers to a diverse range of sectors, helping organisations adapt and thrive in an ever-changing landscape.Our toolkit of levers includes; tabletop exercises, role-playing, future simulations, facilitation, probabilistic thinking games, goal and value alignment, decision design and other methods that combine game design and ideas from behavioural economics, psychology, and organisational theory.Critical Hit: Our organisational aimsBe the place to point to for tabletop scenario advice and tools- Provide expert-level thought leadership and consultation on running serious tabletop exercises.Lower the entry bar to effective tabletop exercising by producing tools, giving guidance and providing expertise.Empower institutions to tackle complex challenges effectively by transforming how they plan, react, and adapt in an increasingly uncertain world.Focus on scenarios of the world's most pressing problems and long-term horizons.Encourage a culture of running organisational games and building a community around tabletop games.Theory of ChangeOur theory of change is rooted in the belief that effective decision-making is a learnable skill. By providing organisations with simulated experience, we aim to create a positive feedback loop in which participants develop stronger decision-making abilities, leading to better outcomes and increased resilience.This, in turn, creates more efficient, effective, and adaptable organisations, ultimately c...